Breaking Barriers: Why the First Furlong Determines Your Betting Future

 

Column 5 shows Hydra at 61.55 fps

In the world of horse racing, where every second counts, the ability to accurately predict the outcome of races is a constant pursuit. From analyzing past performance records to studying jockey skills, handicappers leave no stone unturned in their quest to uncover the key indicators that can tip the scales in their favor. One such indicator that has gained traction in recent years is the last quarter speed. In this article, we delve into the win forecasting potential of the last quarter.

We will use the following race at the Gulfstream racetrack to illustrate the impact of the third quarter speed. In addition, it produced a nice longshot:

Gulfstream race 10/15/2023 3^rd Race Maiden 12500 at 5 1/5 furlongs.

Winner: HYDRIA-1    Paying $27.20 to win for a $2.00 bet

Applicable Angles to the race winner:

1. ·       Hot Trainer Last 14 days
2. ·       Jockey Change
3. ·       Up Close at the first and second call,
4. ·       2nd Start after layoff.
5. ·       Odds drop from last race to today's Morning line.30% drop.
6. ·       The fastest last quarter of all 10 contenders, 61.55 fps. 

We used a computer program to compute the last quarter feet per second calculation.  

Analyzing Last Quarter Speed for Win Forecasting: 

Analyzing last quarter speed can provide valuable insights into a horse's win forecasting potential. By comparing a horse's last quarter speed to its overall speed and considering the other factors mentioned above, one can assess the horse's ability to perform well in the final stretch of the race.

 

Statistical Analysis of Last Quarter Speed:

Several studies have shown that last quarter speed is a significant predictor of race outcome. One study found that horses with the fastest last quarter speeds were more than twice as likely to win as horses with the slowest last quarter speeds. Another study found that last quarter’s speed was more predictive of race outcome than any other handicapping factor, including jockey, trainer, and breeding.

 

My results, however, produced different results. After computing the speed of the last quarter in over 7,000 races, the results were a bit disappointing. See chart 1:

Chart 1

While last quarter speed is a valuable factor in win forecasting, it should not be considered the sole predictor of a horse's winning probability. Other factors, such as the horse's overall performance history, the race's field composition, and the track conditions, also play crucial roles in determining the outcome of a race.

 

Win Forecasting Potential of the Last Quarter Speed in Horse Racing: Of course, last quarter speed is not the only factor that determines the outcome of a horse race. Other factors, such as the horse's position in the race, the track conditions, and the jockey's skill, can also play a role. However, last quarter speed is a valuable handicapping tool that can help you make better picks at the racetrack.

 How to use last quarter speed to handicap races: There are a few different ways to use last quarter speed to handicap races. One way is to simply look at a horse's last quarter speed in its past races. This can give you a general idea of the horse's stamina and ability to accelerate.

Another way to use last quarter speed is to compare it to the last quarter speeds of other horses in the race. This can help you identify horses that are likely to be at the front of the pack in the last quarter of the race.

Once you have a good understanding of last quarter speed, you can use it to handicap races. Here are a few tips:

 Look for horses with consistently fast last quarter speeds.

• Be wary of horses that have slow last quarter speeds, even if they have other factors that suggest they should win the race.
• Consider the distance of the race. Horses with good last quarter speeds are typically better suited for shorter races, as they have less time to make up ground on the leaders.

Conclusion:

The win forecasting potential of last quarter speed in horse racing is a captivating aspect that adds depth to the world of betting and race analysis. By recognizing the significance of a horse's performance during the final stretch, bettors can gain a competitive advantage in predicting winners.

However, it is crucial to approach last quarter speed as part of a holistic analysis that considers various other factors influencing a horse's performance. With thorough research, analysis, and an understanding of the sport, one can harness the power of last quarter’s speed to make more informed win forecasts in the realm of horse racing.

 Related Reads: 

• Unlocking Winning Strategies: Athena's Class Rating for Horse Racing Enthusiasts
• Exploring the Vital Role of Jockeys in Horse Racing
• Part 2 - The Magic of Early Speed
• Winning Horse Race Angles: Is the Horse Ready to Fire?